What Coinbase says about dumping MONAD after the ICO on Nov 24

Here’s what Coinbase is saying (based on public reporting) about the risk of selling/dumping MON around or after the November 24 launch:

  1. Anti-flipper mechanism:
    • Coinbase’s token-sale design “rewards higher allocation priority to true supporters first.”
    • Specifically, if you sell your MON within 30 days of listing (i.e., right after launch), it may reduce your allocation in future Coinbase token sales.
    • This creates some disincentive to “just dump” immediately for short-term profit.
  2. Founder / Team lock-up:
    • The project team and affiliated parties are restricted from selling any of their tokens (private or on exchanges) for six months after the public sale
    • That helps align early insiders to not immediately dump at listing
  3. Allocation algorithm (“fill-from-bottom”):
    • Rather than first-come-first-served (which favors big buyers), they use an algorithm that starts allocating from smaller bids — to give more “real users” a fair chance
    • This is intended to make the distribution more “broad and equitable” and reduce whale dominance

Why Coinbase Thinks This Model Helps Prevent a “Pump and Dump”

  • According to Coinbase, by penalizing short-term sellers (via reduced future allocation), they hope to encourage longer-term holding rather than flipping
  • They also emphasize that issuers (like Monad) must disclose tokenomics and vesting schedules, adding transparency
  • The six-month lock-up for the team and affiliates is a big part of their risk-mitigation — it makes it harder for insiders to immediately dump.

Simple Explanation of MON Dump Risk

When MON first starts trading (first 30 days):

  • Only a small amount of MON is available to trade.
  • Some people will sell, but not everyone, because selling early reduces their chances of joining future Coinbase token sales.
  • The price might move a lot, but a huge crash is not very likely right away.

👉 Dump risk: Medium

After 30 days (up to 6 months):

  • The early penalty for selling is gone.
  • More people who were waiting might decide to sell.
  • There is still no new MON being released by the team yet.

👉 Dump risk: Medium–High

At 6 months:

  • Team members, early investors, and other large holders are allowed to start selling for the first time.
  • This adds a large amount of new MON into the market.
  • This period usually creates the strongest downward pressure on price.

👉 Dump risk: High

After 6 months (up to 2 years):

  • More MON is released over time.
  • Whether the price falls or stays stable depends on how much people actually want the token and the project.

👉 Dump risk: Depends on demand

⭐ Very simple summary

  • First month: medium chance of price dropping
  • 1–6 months: medium–high chance
  • At 6 months: biggest chance of a large drop
  • After that: depends on how popular MON becomes

MON has a medium chance of dropping early, a higher chance after the first month, and the biggest chance of dropping around six months when a lot more tokens become unlocked and can be sold.